Decline depth
-42.0%
From rolling 252-day high of $35.76, 234d ago.
Past the 40% Red List threshold.
Red List
HODLVanEck Bitcoin Trust
-42.0%
from rolling 252-day high of $35.76 set 2025-10-06 · 234d ago
Current
$20.74
Decline depth
-42.0%
Decline σ
6.4σ
TFC
0/5 bearish
Rolling 252-day high
Up day
Down day
Last 90 trading days · data from Alpaca
Since it joined the list
$HODL landed on the list 2026-05-14, down 35.6% from its 52-week high that day — now down -42.0%.
That's 15.5 percentage points deeper than the day it joined.
Decline from the 52-week high as it stood on 2026-05-14 (fixed anchor) → today. Split-adjusted, Alpaca. Observed history, not a forecast.
Structural break signals
HODL qualifies for the Red List on decline depth.
Time-frame continuity
0/5 bearish
Latest bar across daily/weekly/monthly/quarterly/yearly time frames. A bar counts as bearish when it's a 2-Down or a red 3.
Decline sigma
6.4σ
Drop from local high over the last 20 bars, expressed in units of the stock's typical daily volatility (1.83% per day).
Past the ≥6σ Amber threshold.
The structural read
What price action says about HODL.
HODL qualifies for the Red List on decline depth — down -42.0% from its rolling 252-day high. Past the 40% threshold, the deepest tier in the taxonomy.
Cross-confirmation: decline sigma also reads 6.4σ over 20 bars.
52-week range
52W low $17.61
17.3% of range
52W high $35.76
Related — same sector
Closest decliners to HODL
Questions about HODL
What people ask.
Why is HODL on Broken Stocks?
HODL qualifies for the Red List on decline depth. It is down -42.0% from its rolling 252-day high of $35.76, set on 2025-10-06 — 234d ago.
Is HODL a falling knife?
Not by the strict technical definition. HODL is down -42.0% from its 52-week high, but that high was set 234d ago — more than 120 days. A falling knife is usually a recent breakdown from a fresh high, not an established multi-quarter downtrend. HODL is still on the Red List for decline depth, but the freshness component of a falling knife is missing.
Is HODL a buy?
Broken Stocks does not issue buy or sell recommendations. The list is a rules-based technical warning system. It tracks structural decline depth and recency — not company quality, management, fundamentals, or news. Always do your own research and consult a licensed advisor.
Where is HODL trading inside its 52-week range?
At $20.74, HODL sits 17.3% of the way from its 52-week low ($17.61) to its 52-week high ($35.76). A reading below 25% indicates price is hugging the bottom of the range; above 75%, the top.
How fast has HODL been declining?
The current 42.0% decline accrued over 234d, which annualizes to roughly -65.5% per year. Annualized pace is a sanity check — a 30% decline in three months is a different signal than a 30% decline over two years.