Decline depth
-36.8%
From rolling 252-day high of $18.79, 106d ago.
Past the 30% Amber threshold.
-36.8%
from rolling 252-day high of $18.79 set 2026-07-02 · 106d ago
Current
$11.88
Decline depth
-36.8%
Decline σ
6.3σ
TFC
0/5 bearish
Where it stands
On the Red List.
Down 36.8% from its rolling 252-day high, 106 days after the high.
Snapshot . Price structure, not a judgment about the business.
What changed
Since the previous observation.
Tier and recovery signal are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing with . This compares classification, not price returns.
See the recorded timeline →Why it is flagged
AAL qualifies for the Red List on decline depth.
Down 36.8% from its rolling 252-day high, 106 days after the high. The most severe triggered rule determines the tier.
Inspect the three classification measures
Time-frame continuity
0/5 bearish
Latest bar on five time frames, daily to yearly. Bearish = 2-Down or red 3.
Decline sigma
6.3σ
Drop over the last 20 bars in units of daily volatility (2.51%/day).
Past the ≥6σ Amber threshold.
Price history
The price path behind the snapshot.
Daily prices with the rolling-high reference. When a recorded classification event falls on a displayed trading date, it is marked on the chart.
Rolling 252-day high
Gold dots: recorded classification events (see timeline)
Up day
Down day
90 daily bars from Alpaca · through
The recorded history
A timeline of observations.
First observed 2026-05-15. These are scan observations, not exact transition times or the start of a decline. Missing scan dates are not filled in.
- Red List; recovery signal active → Red List
- Red List → Red List; recovery signal active
- Red List; recovery signal active → Red List
- Red List → Red List; recovery signal active
- Red List; recovery signal active → Red List
- Amber List → Red List; recovery signal active
- Watch → Amber List
- Unmatched; coverage or recovery unconfirmed → Watch
- Watch → Unmatched; coverage or recovery unconfirmed
- Unmatched; coverage or recovery unconfirmed → Watch
- Watch → Unmatched; coverage or recovery unconfirmed
- Unmatched; coverage or recovery unconfirmed → Watch
Showing the latest 12 of 28 recorded events.
Absence from a captured list does not establish recovery. Historical tiers reflect the rules and data recorded at that time.
Around the worst days
What the news said when AAL fell hardest.
News published within a day of its largest one-day drops points to an earnings miss or lowered guidance.
- -8.4%
- -5.9%
- -5.7%
A language model's reading of 14 headlines, taken . It classifies the news on those days; it does not explain the whole decline and is not a tier input. How this is produced.
Technical interpretation and signal details
The structural read
What price action says about AAL.
AAL qualifies for the Red List on decline depth — down -36.8% from its rolling 252-day high. Past 30% with the high set inside the last four months — the recency clause in the classification rules. Depth plus recency: this is the pattern many investors call a falling knife.
Cross-confirmation: decline sigma also reads 6.3σ over 20 bars.
Upstream TFC read: bearish alignment, current phase daily. Last bar types — daily 2U (red), weekly 2D (red), monthly 2D (red).
Earnings on file: 2026-07-23. Earnings dates don't affect tiering.
Questions about AAL
What people ask.
Why is AAL on Broken Stocks?
AAL qualifies for the Red List on decline depth. It is down -36.8% from its rolling 252-day high of $18.79, set on 2026-07-02 — 106d ago.
Is AAL a falling knife?
By the most common technical definition — a steep, recent breakdown from a fresh high — yes. AAL is down -36.8% from its 52-week high of $18.79, set 106d ago. That combination of depth (past the 30% Amber threshold) and recency (high set inside the last 120 days) is the textbook falling-knife pattern. Whether to try to catch it is a separate question — the classification does not predict subsequent returns. Broken Stocks flags the pattern; it does not recommend buying or selling.
Is AAL a buy?
Broken Stocks does not issue buy or sell recommendations. The list is a rules-based technical warning system. It tracks structural decline depth and recency — not company quality, management, fundamentals, or news. Always do your own research and consult a licensed advisor.
Where is AAL trading inside its 52-week range?
At $11.88, AAL sits 20.6% of the way from its 52-week low ($10.09) to its 52-week high ($18.79). A reading below 25% indicates price is hugging the bottom of the range; above 75%, the top.
How fast has AAL been declining?
The current 36.8% decline accrued over 106d, which annualizes to roughly -126.7% per year. Annualized pace is a sanity check — a 30% decline in three months is a different signal than a 30% decline over two years.
How does AAL compare to its sector?
There are 628 other Industrials tickers on Broken Stocks: 396 Red, 148 Amber, 84 Watch, with 292 showing recovering structural signals. Median sector decline is -35.7% — AAL's decline is deeper than the sector median.
Does AAL's earnings date affect its tier?
No. Tiering uses decline depth and recency, bearish time-frame structure, and decline sigma. The earnings date on file (2026-07-23) is shown for reference only — listings can move tier between scans based on closing prices, regardless of fundamentals or news events.