Red List

CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.

Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants · large-cap ($43.0B)
-30.1%
from rolling 252-day high of $42.74 set 2025-10-21 · 360d ago
Current
$29.89
Decline depth
-30.1%
Decline σ
5.1σ
TFC
2/5 bearish

Where it stands

On the Red List.

Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules on 2026-10-06. Today it reads Amber List; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.

Snapshot . Price structure, not a judgment about the business.

What changed

Since the previous observation.

Tier and recovery signal are unchanged between these two observations.

Comparing with . This compares classification, not price returns.

See the recorded timeline →

Why it is flagged

CMG is held on the Red List.

Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules on 2026-10-06. Today it reads Amber List; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.

Inspect the three classification measures
Decline depth
-30.1%
From rolling 252-day high of $42.74, 360d ago. Past the 30% Amber threshold.
Time-frame continuity
2/5 bearish
Latest bar on five time frames, daily to yearly. Bearish = 2-Down or red 3.
Decline sigma
5.1σ
Drop over the last 20 bars in units of daily volatility (2.32%/day). Past the ≥4σ Watch threshold.

Price history

The price path behind the snapshot.

Daily prices with the rolling-high reference. When a recorded classification event falls on a displayed trading date, it is marked on the chart.

Rolling 252-day high Gold dots: recorded classification events (see timeline) Up day Down day 90 daily bars from Alpaca · through

The recorded history

A timeline of observations.

First observed 2026-05-15. These are scan observations, not exact transition times or the start of a decline. Missing scan dates are not filled in.

  1. Red List; recovery signal active → Red List
  2. Red List → Red List; recovery signal active
  3. Amber List → Red List
  4. Watch → Amber List
  5. Unmatched; coverage or recovery unconfirmed → Watch
  6. Watch; recovery signal active → Unmatched; coverage or recovery unconfirmed
  7. Watch → Watch; recovery signal active
  8. Watch; recovery signal active → Watch
  9. Watch → Watch; recovery signal active
  10. Watch; recovery signal active → Watch
  11. Watch → Watch; recovery signal active
  12. Unmatched; coverage or recovery unconfirmed → Watch

Showing the latest 12 of 31 recorded events.

Absence from a captured list does not establish recovery. Historical tiers reflect the rules and data recorded at that time.

Separate research · Phoenix

A dated recovery thesis.

CMG was included in the Phoenix research list published . That frozen research cohort and its scorecard are separate from this nightly classification.

Read the thesis and dated scorecard →
Technical interpretation and signal details

The structural read

What price action says about CMG.

CMG is held on the Red List, which it last met on 2026-10-06. A tier moves down, or a name leaves the list, only after five consecutive scans below the tier's rules with a cushion of 3 points on depth and 1σ on sigma. Today's unbuffered reading: Amber.

Cross-confirmation: decline sigma also reads 5.1σ over 20 bars.

Upstream TFC read: bearish alignment, current phase daily. Last bar types — daily 2D (red), weekly 2D (red), monthly 2D (red).

Earnings on file: 2026-07-29. Earnings dates don't affect tiering.

Questions about CMG

What people ask.

Why is CMG on Broken Stocks?

CMG is held on the Red List. Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules on 2026-10-06. Today it reads Amber List; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.

Is CMG a falling knife?

Not by the strict technical definition. CMG is down -30.1% from its 52-week high, but that high was set 360d ago — more than 120 days. A falling knife is usually a recent breakdown from a fresh high, not an established multi-quarter downtrend. CMG is still on the Red List for decline depth, but the freshness component of a falling knife is missing.

Is CMG a buy?

Broken Stocks does not issue buy or sell recommendations. The list is a rules-based technical warning system. It tracks structural decline depth and recency — not company quality, management, fundamentals, or news. Always do your own research and consult a licensed advisor.

Where is CMG trading inside its 52-week range?

At $29.89, CMG sits 11.0% of the way from its 52-week low ($28.04) to its 52-week high ($44.83). A reading below 25% indicates price is hugging the bottom of the range; above 75%, the top.

How fast has CMG been declining?

The current 30.1% decline accrued over 360d, which annualizes to roughly -30.5% per year. Annualized pace is a sanity check — a 30% decline in three months is a different signal than a 30% decline over two years.

How does CMG compare to its sector?

There are 411 other Consumer Cyclical tickers on Broken Stocks: 289 Red, 86 Amber, 36 Watch, with 243 showing recovering structural signals. Median sector decline is -36.6% — CMG's decline is shallower than the sector median.

Does CMG's earnings date affect its tier?

No. Tiering uses decline depth and recency, bearish time-frame structure, and decline sigma. The earnings date on file (2026-07-29) is shown for reference only — listings can move tier between scans based on closing prices, regardless of fundamentals or news events.