Red List

FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.

Industrials · Aerospace & Defense · mid-cap ($3.8B)
-73.1%
from rolling 252-day high of $62.17 set 2026-05-26 · 143d ago
Current
$16.75
Decline depth
-73.1%
Decline σ
7.5σ
TFC
1/5 bearish

Where it stands

On the Red List.

Down 73.1% from its rolling 252-day high, 143 days after the high.

Snapshot . Price structure, not a judgment about the business.

What changed

Since the previous observation.

Tier and recovery signal are unchanged between these two observations.

Comparing with . This compares classification, not price returns.

See the recorded timeline →

Why it is flagged

FLY qualifies for the Red List on decline depth.

Down 73.1% from its rolling 252-day high, 143 days after the high. The most severe triggered rule determines the tier.

Inspect the three classification measures
Decline depth
-73.1%
From rolling 252-day high of $62.17, 143d ago. Past the 40% Red List threshold.
Time-frame continuity
1/5 bearish
Latest bar on five time frames, daily to yearly. Bearish = 2-Down or red 3.
Decline sigma
7.5σ
Drop over the last 20 bars in units of daily volatility (4.68%/day). Past the ≥6σ Amber threshold.

Price history

The price path behind the snapshot.

Daily prices with the rolling-high reference. When a recorded classification event falls on a displayed trading date, it is marked on the chart.

Rolling 252-day high Gold dots: recorded classification events (see timeline) Up day Down day 90 daily bars from Alpaca · through

The recorded history

A timeline of observations.

First observed 2026-06-04. These are scan observations, not exact transition times or the start of a decline. Missing scan dates are not filled in.

  1. Amber List → Red List
  2. Watch → Amber List
  3. Unmatched; coverage or recovery unconfirmed → Watch
  4. Watch → Unmatched; coverage or recovery unconfirmed
  5. Amber List → Watch
  6. Red List → Amber List
  7. Amber List → Red List
  8. Watch → Amber List
  9. Amber List → Watch
  10. Watch → Amber List
  11. First observed: Watch

Absence from a captured list does not establish recovery. Historical tiers reflect the rules and data recorded at that time.

Around the worst days

What the news said when FLY fell hardest.

News published within a day of its largest one-day drops points to a share sale or financing.

  • -19.1%
  • -13.8%
  • -12.7%

A language model's reading of 7 headlines, taken . It classifies the news on those days; it does not explain the whole decline and is not a tier input. How this is produced.

Technical interpretation and signal details

The structural read

What price action says about FLY.

FLY qualifies for the Red List on decline depth — down -73.1% from its rolling 252-day high. Past the 40% threshold, the deepest tier in the taxonomy.

Cross-confirmation: decline sigma also reads 7.5σ over 20 bars.

Earnings on file: 2026-08-11. Earnings dates don't affect tiering.

Questions about FLY

What people ask.

Why is FLY on Broken Stocks?

FLY qualifies for the Red List on decline depth. It is down -73.1% from its rolling 252-day high of $62.17, set on 2026-05-26 — 143d ago.

Is FLY a falling knife?

Not by the strict technical definition. FLY is down -73.1% from its 52-week high, but that high was set 143d ago — more than 120 days. A falling knife is usually a recent breakdown from a fresh high, not an established multi-quarter downtrend. FLY is still on the Red List for decline depth, but the freshness component of a falling knife is missing.

Is FLY a buy?

Broken Stocks does not issue buy or sell recommendations. The list is a rules-based technical warning system. It tracks structural decline depth and recency — not company quality, management, fundamentals, or news. Always do your own research and consult a licensed advisor.

Where is FLY trading inside its 52-week range?

At $16.75, FLY sits 1.6% of the way from its 52-week low ($16.00) to its 52-week high ($62.17). A reading below 25% indicates price is hugging the bottom of the range; above 75%, the top.

How fast has FLY been declining?

The current 73.1% decline accrued over 143d, which annualizes to roughly -186.6% per year. Annualized pace is a sanity check — a 30% decline in three months is a different signal than a 30% decline over two years.

How does FLY compare to its sector?

There are 628 other Industrials tickers on Broken Stocks: 396 Red, 148 Amber, 84 Watch, with 292 showing recovering structural signals. Median sector decline is -35.7% — FLY's decline is deeper than the sector median.

Does FLY's earnings date affect its tier?

No. Tiering uses decline depth and recency, bearish time-frame structure, and decline sigma. The earnings date on file (2026-08-11) is shown for reference only — listings can move tier between scans based on closing prices, regardless of fundamentals or news events.