Track record · first-party panel 2026-05-15 → 2026-09-09

What happened after we flagged them.

Since 2026-05-15 we have recorded every nightly scan of the full Broken List into an append-only panel — 75 scans, no backfill, no edits. That makes the list testable: once a stock is flagged, does it actually stay broken? This page is the observed answer over the first 117 days, published as fact, not forecast.

Basis: U.S. common stocks (excl. ADRs, ETFs and closed-end funds). Baskets — ETFs and closed-end funds — came off the list on 2026-09-09, and 7,771 of them come out of this record too: a name removed by definition is not a name that recovered. They had been leaving the list more often than single names, so persistence reads higher than it did before the change. The basis moved, not the market.

Market context: over the same window the S&P 500 (SPY) went from 739.17 (2026-05-15) to 762.40 (2026-09-09), +3.1%. A rising market, and three in four flagged names still hadn't recovered — persistence here isn't a market artifact.

The severity gradient holds

Recovery ran Watch → Amber → Red, as the tiering intends: the deeper the tier at first capture, the less likely the name had left the list.

Seed cohort: every ticker on the list at the first capture (2026-05-15), measured through 2026-09-09. “Sustained Red stint” = a name that entered below Red and later held the Red List for 3+ consecutive scans.

Names flagged while we watched

The seed names were already broken when tracking began. The cleaner test is the 797 names newly flagged since, each observed for at least 60 days. Nearly all enter at the Watch tier — the early-warning rung — and 29% durably recovered, most within about two months (median 74 observed days on the list before exit). But 73% went on to hold a worse tier for 3+ consecutive scans, and 40% went on to a sustained Red List stint. The two groups overlap — a name can slide to Amber, hold there, and still recover later — so the figures don't sum to 100. When a Watch flag escalates, the flag was early — that is the job.

Names almost always enter at Watch first, so the Red and Amber entry columns are tiny; read All and Watch.

How these numbers are computed

Every night the full universe — ticker, tier, decline depth, decline sigma, time-frame continuity, price — is appended to a first-party panel that is never edited or backfilled. “Still broken” means present in the latest scan. “Durably recovered” means absent from the last 5 scans (about a week) — names hovering at the −20% line flicker on and off the list day to day, and a durable exit is the honest bar. “Delisted” means the name left the panel and the security master (exchange listing files, Alpaca corporate actions, SEC Form 25) says it left the exchange — an acquisition, a symbol change, or a worthless removal; those are excluded from “Durably recovered.” A delisting the master does not know about still counts as a recovery, so recovery rates remain an upper bound. The record holds one basis for its whole life — U.S. common stocks (excl. ADRs, ETFs and closed-end funds) — because a rate whose population changes mid-window measures the change of basis, not the market. This covers one observation window in one market regime, and it is descriptive history, not a forecast. The full report and definitions ship in the repository as data/track_record.md; figures regenerate with the nightly refresh.