Decline depth
-35.5%
From rolling 252-day high of $173.99, 310d ago.
Past the 30% Amber threshold.
Red ListRecovering
ARESAres Management Corporation
Financial Services · Asset Management · large-cap ($42.2B)
-35.5%
from rolling 252-day high of $173.99 set 2025-12-10 · 310d ago
Current
$112.27
Decline depth
-35.5%
Decline σ
9.1σ
TFC
4/5 bearish
Where it stands
On the Red List.
Decline measures 9.1 standard deviations of typical daily moves.
Snapshot . Price structure, not a judgment about the business.
A bullish structural signal is also active. The Recovering badge coexists with the decline tier; it does not establish a completed recovery.
What changed
Since the previous observation.
Tier and recovery signal are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing with . This compares classification, not price returns.
See the recorded timeline →Why it is flagged
ARES qualifies for the Red List on decline sigma.
Decline measures 9.1 standard deviations of typical daily moves. The most severe triggered rule determines the tier.
Inspect the three classification measures
Time-frame continuity
4/5 bearish
Latest bar on five time frames, daily to yearly. Bearish = 2-Down or red 3.
Past the 4/5 Amber threshold.
Decline sigma
9.1σ
Drop over the last 20 bars in units of daily volatility (1.63%/day).
Past the ≥8σ Red List threshold — an extreme move.
Price history
The price path behind the snapshot.
Daily prices with the rolling-high reference. When a recorded classification event falls on a displayed trading date, it is marked on the chart.
Rolling 252-day high
Gold dots: recorded classification events (see timeline)
Up day
Down day
90 daily bars from Alpaca · through
The recorded history
A timeline of observations.
First observed 2026-05-15. These are scan observations, not exact transition times or the start of a decline. Missing scan dates are not filled in.
- Red List → Red List; recovery signal active
- Red List; recovery signal active → Red List
- Red List → Red List; recovery signal active
- Amber List → Red List
- Amber List; recovery signal active → Amber List
- Amber List → Amber List; recovery signal active
- Amber List; recovery signal active → Amber List
- Amber List → Amber List; recovery signal active
- Amber List; recovery signal active → Amber List
- Amber List → Amber List; recovery signal active
- Amber List; recovery signal active → Amber List
- Amber List → Amber List; recovery signal active
Showing the latest 12 of 29 recorded events.
Absence from a captured list does not establish recovery. Historical tiers reflect the rules and data recorded at that time.
Around the worst days
What the news said when ARES fell hardest.
News published within a day of its largest one-day drops points to an earnings miss or lowered guidance.
- -11.2%
- -10.2%
- -7.0%
A language model's reading of 11 headlines, taken . It classifies the news on those days; it does not explain the whole decline and is not a tier input. How this is produced.
Technical interpretation and signal details
The structural read
What price action says about ARES.
ARES qualifies for the Red List on decline sigma — the recent drop measures 9.1σ over a 20-bar window. Sigma scales the move by the stock's own typical daily volatility, so a small percentage drop in a normally-quiet name can land here when the bigger players miss it on a pure-percent threshold.
Cross-confirmation: also showing 4/5 bearish time frames.
A confirmed bullish signal on one or more time frames earned the Recovering badge. The tier reflects the most severe price-structure rule; Recovering identifies a separate bullish signal. Not a buy signal.
Whether ARES's turn is investable is ConvictionEdge's question, not ours.
Upstream TFC read: bearish alignment, current phase daily. Last bar types — daily 2U (red), weekly 2D (red), monthly 2D (red).
Earnings on file: 2026-07-31. Earnings dates don't affect tiering.
Questions about ARES
What people ask.
Why is ARES on Broken Stocks?
ARES qualifies for the Red List on decline sigma. The recent drop measures 9.1σ over a 20-bar window — large enough that even a small percentage drop is structurally significant given the stock's typical day-to-day volatility (1.63%). It additionally carries a Recovering badge — see below.
What does the Recovering badge mean for ARES?
Recovering means our proprietary engine has flagged a confirmed bullish structural signal on one or more time frames (moderate or strong time-frame continuity). It coexists with the decline tier — ARES is still Red List because a price-structure rule still triggers, but a bullish setup has formed inside that decline. The two readings answer different questions: the tier reflects the most severe triggered rule; the Recovering badge tells you whether momentum may be turning. It's not a buy recommendation.
Is ARES a falling knife?
Not by the strict technical definition. ARES is down -35.5% from its 52-week high, but that high was set 310d ago — more than 120 days. A falling knife is usually a recent breakdown from a fresh high, not an established multi-quarter downtrend. ARES is still on the Red List for decline depth, but the freshness component of a falling knife is missing.
Is ARES a buy?
Broken Stocks does not issue buy or sell recommendations. The list is a rules-based technical warning system. It tracks structural decline depth and recency — not company quality, management, fundamentals, or news. Always do your own research and consult a licensed advisor.
Where is ARES trading inside its 52-week range?
At $112.27, ARES sits 16.6% of the way from its 52-week low ($95.80) to its 52-week high ($195.26). A reading below 25% indicates price is hugging the bottom of the range; above 75%, the top.
How fast has ARES been declining?
The current 35.5% decline accrued over 310d, which annualizes to roughly -41.8% per year. Annualized pace is a sanity check — a 30% decline in three months is a different signal than a 30% decline over two years.
How does ARES compare to its sector?
There are 237 other Financial Services tickers on Broken Stocks: 172 Red, 49 Amber, 16 Watch, with 109 showing recovering structural signals. Median sector decline is -32.5% — ARES's decline is deeper than the sector median.
Does ARES's earnings date affect its tier?
No. Tiering uses decline depth and recency, bearish time-frame structure, and decline sigma. The earnings date on file (2026-07-31) is shown for reference only — listings can move tier between scans based on closing prices, regardless of fundamentals or news events.