Decline depth
—
Not currently in the rolling-252-day ≥20% decline universe.
Red List
ESTCElastic N.V.
4.2σ
decline sigma — volatility-normalized move (typical daily 5.64%)
Current
$83.39
Decline depth
—
Decline σ
4.2σ
TFC
5/5 bearish
Rolling 252-day high
Up day
Down day
Last 90 trading days · data from Alpaca
Since tracking began
$ESTC has been tracked since 2026-03-01. It was down 55.0% from its 52-week high then — now $83.39.
It has clawed back 26.0 percentage points off that level. It bottomed 63.1% below that high along the way.
From the 52-week high as of 2026-03-02 to today. Split-adjusted. Observed, not a forecast.
Structural break signals
ESTC qualifies for the Red List on decline sigma.
Time-frame continuity
5/5 bearish
Latest bar on five time frames, daily to yearly. Bearish = 2-Down or red 3.
Full bearish continuity — every time frame is broken.
Decline sigma
4.2σ
Drop over the last 10 bars in units of daily volatility (5.64%/day).
Past the ≥4σ Watch threshold.
The structural read
What price action says about ESTC.
ESTC qualifies for the Red List on decline sigma — the recent drop measures 4.2σ over a 10-bar window. Sigma scales the move by the stock's own typical daily volatility, so a small percentage drop in a normally-quiet name can land here when the bigger players miss it on a pure-percent threshold.
Cross-confirmation: also showing 5/5 bearish time frames.
Upstream TFC read: bearish alignment, current phase daily. Last bar types — daily 2D (red), weekly 2D (red), monthly 1 (red).
Questions about ESTC
What people ask.
Why is ESTC on Broken Stocks?
ESTC qualifies for the Red List on decline sigma. The recent drop measures 4.2σ over a 10-bar window — large enough that even a small percentage drop is structurally significant given the stock's typical day-to-day volatility (5.64%).
Is ESTC a falling knife?
ESTC is on Broken Stocks for time-frame continuity or decline-sigma reasons rather than headline depth, so the falling-knife label doesn't cleanly apply. The phrase usually requires a meaningful percentage drop from a fresh high. See the structural break signals above for the axis that actually triggered the listing.
Is ESTC a buy?
Broken Stocks does not issue buy or sell recommendations. The list is a rules-based technical warning system. It tracks structural decline depth and recency — not company quality, management, fundamentals, or news. Always do your own research and consult a licensed advisor.
Where is ESTC trading inside its 52-week range?
At $83.39, ESTC sits 55.2% of the way from its 52-week low ($53.04) to its 52-week high ($108.00). A reading below 25% indicates price is hugging the bottom of the range; above 75%, the top.