Decline depth
-29.7%
From rolling 252-day high of $330.09, 136d ago.
Past the 20% Watch threshold.
Amber ListRecovering
IBMInternational Business Machines
Technology · Information Technology Services · mega-cap ($214.4B)
-29.7%
from rolling 252-day high of $330.09 set 2026-06-02 · 136d ago
Current
$232.14
Decline depth
-29.7%
Decline σ
2.2σ
TFC
3/5 bearish
Where it stands
On the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules on 2026-10-13. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Snapshot . Price structure, not a judgment about the business.
A bullish structural signal is also active. The Recovering badge coexists with the decline tier; it does not establish a completed recovery.
What changed
Since the previous observation.
Tier and recovery signal are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing with . This compares classification, not price returns.
See the recorded timeline →Why it is flagged
IBM is held on the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules on 2026-10-13. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Inspect the three classification measures
Time-frame continuity
3/5 bearish
Latest bar on five time frames, daily to yearly. Bearish = 2-Down or red 3.
Past the 3/5 Watch threshold.
Decline sigma
2.2σ
Drop over the last 20 bars in units of daily volatility (1.48%/day).
Price history
The price path behind the snapshot.
Daily prices with the rolling-high reference. When a recorded classification event falls on a displayed trading date, it is marked on the chart.
Rolling 252-day high
Gold dots: recorded classification events (see timeline)
Up day
Down day
90 daily bars from Alpaca · through
The recorded history
A timeline of observations.
First observed 2026-05-15. These are scan observations, not exact transition times or the start of a decline. Missing scan dates are not filled in.
- Red List → Amber List; recovery signal active
- Red List; recovery signal active → Red List
- Watch; recovery signal active → Red List; recovery signal active
- Watch → Watch; recovery signal active
- Watch; recovery signal active → Watch
- Watch → Watch; recovery signal active
- Watch; recovery signal active → Watch
- Watch → Watch; recovery signal active
- Watch; recovery signal active → Watch
- Red List → Watch; recovery signal active
- Watch; recovery signal active → Red List
- Red List → Watch; recovery signal active
Showing the latest 12 of 34 recorded events.
Absence from a captured list does not establish recovery. Historical tiers reflect the rules and data recorded at that time.
Around the worst days
What the news said when IBM fell hardest.
News published within a day of its largest one-day drops points to an earnings miss or lowered guidance.
- -25.2%
- -7.2%
- -5.6%
A language model's reading of 18 headlines, taken . It classifies the news on those days; it does not explain the whole decline and is not a tier input. How this is produced.
Technical interpretation and signal details
The structural read
What price action says about IBM.
IBM is held on the Amber List, which it last met on 2026-10-13. A tier moves down, or a name leaves the list, only after five consecutive scans below the tier's rules with a cushion of 3 points on depth and 1σ on sigma. Today's unbuffered reading: Watch.
Cross-confirmation: also showing 3/5 bearish time frames.
A confirmed bullish signal on one or more time frames earned the Recovering badge. The tier reflects the most severe price-structure rule; Recovering identifies a separate bullish signal. Not a buy signal.
Whether IBM's turn is investable is ConvictionEdge's question, not ours.
Upstream TFC read: moderate alignment, current phase weekly. Last bar types — daily 2U (red), weekly 2U (green), monthly 2D (green).
Earnings on file: 2026-10-21. Earnings dates don't affect tiering.
Questions about IBM
What people ask.
Why is IBM on Broken Stocks?
IBM is held on the Amber List. Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules on 2026-10-13. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules. It additionally carries a Recovering badge — see below.
What does the Recovering badge mean for IBM?
Recovering means our proprietary engine has flagged a confirmed bullish structural signal on one or more time frames (moderate or strong time-frame continuity). It coexists with the decline tier — IBM is still Amber List because a price-structure rule still triggers, but a bullish setup has formed inside that decline. The two readings answer different questions: the tier reflects the most severe triggered rule; the Recovering badge tells you whether momentum may be turning. It's not a buy recommendation.
Is IBM a falling knife?
No. The falling-knife label usually implies a steep, severe drop — typically 30% or more from a fresh high. IBM is down -29.7% from its 52-week high, which qualifies for the Watch tier but is shallower than the falling-knife pattern. It's an early-stage decline rather than a sharp breakdown.
Is IBM a buy?
Broken Stocks does not issue buy or sell recommendations. The list is a rules-based technical warning system. It tracks structural decline depth and recency — not company quality, management, fundamentals, or news. Always do your own research and consult a licensed advisor.
Where is IBM trading inside its 52-week range?
At $232.14, IBM sits 24.7% of the way from its 52-week low ($199.19) to its 52-week high ($332.46). A reading below 25% indicates price is hugging the bottom of the range; above 75%, the top.
How fast has IBM been declining?
The current 29.7% decline accrued over 136d, which annualizes to roughly -79.7% per year. Annualized pace is a sanity check — a 30% decline in three months is a different signal than a 30% decline over two years.
How does IBM compare to its sector?
There are 598 other Technology tickers on Broken Stocks: 407 Red, 128 Amber, 63 Watch, with 235 showing recovering structural signals. Median sector decline is -42.1% — IBM's decline is shallower than the sector median.
Does IBM's earnings date affect its tier?
No. Tiering uses decline depth and recency, bearish time-frame structure, and decline sigma. The earnings date on file (2026-10-21) is shown for reference only — listings can move tier between scans based on closing prices, regardless of fundamentals or news events.